The July 16 governorship election in Osun election has come and gone. But what were the factors that shaped the election and can we say the election is a clear pointer to the 2023 general elections?
The INEC Chief Returning Officer for Osun, Oluwatoyin Ogundipe, who announced the result Sunday Morning said the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Ademola Adeleke, scored 403,371 votes to emerge victorious over the incumbent governor, Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who polled 375,027 votes.
Although 15 political parties took part in the election, the race was actually between the PDP and the APC, a rivalry that was formed in the 2018 governorship election.
The Popularity and Acceptability of Adeleke
Another major factor which propelled Adeleke to victory can be found in his belief that he won the 2018 election. Although he challenged the outcome in court, he was not successful as his challenge was dismissed by the Supreme Court on technicalities.
In the Saturday’s election, Adeleke won in 17 of the 30 local government areas. He also won some local governments in the strongholds of the APC, such as Ilesa West and Ife North. He also won a decisive victory in Osogbo, the largest voting block of the state. Adeleke’s popularity was defined by victories in strategic local governments and a brilliant challenge in areas expected to be the stronghold of the APC. He also maintained a clean sheet in his own Osun West domain.
Governance Go Beyond Salary Payment
Political experts argued that the governor is a gentleman, who kept many of his promises to the people. His performance in debt repayment, salaries to workers and stability of the state’s solvency are not under scrutiny, but the people, however, wanted a change because they believe that governance goes beyond salary payment.
Financial Muscle
Most of the electorates got money from all the parties willing to dole out to them in different values: N10,000, N5,000, and so on. At the Osun polls, the people were the real scammers. They shouted praises of the politicians as they came to vote, they plundered them with their songs of glorification but would cast their votes whichever way they wished.
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While it may be difficult to ascertain whether they voted for the candidates who paid them higher, it is likely that this factor could have worked against the APC who expected their supporters to vote them back into office and the fact that Adeleke and his families had the financial wherewithal to challenge the APC.
INEC’s Improvements
Also, the deployment of BVAS has changed the game to a large extent. Accreditation and results collation has been enhanced through the new system. Even the rate of violence has dropped especially with the recently concluded elections.
Fewer ballot boxes were smashed at the polls and fewer cancellations were recorded. This credit goes to INEC given that the ballots were secured and the voters’ wishes were allowed to come to pass. It is a popular view that the transmission of results from the PUs to INEC’s database by polling officers has greatly reduced the chances of manipulation of the election by state actors.
Aregbesola Factor
How could a chieftain of the APC be away when his house was on fire? The former governor of the state and incumbent Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, it was gathered travelled abroad on an official engagement.
No doubt, the minister and Oyetola have not been on the same page. The APC in Osun currently has two factions — one loyal to Aregbesola while the other supports Oyetola. The minister had backed Moshood Adeoti, a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), for the APC governorship ticket but Oyetola won the primary. Aregbesola had subsequently described the primary as a “sham of an election” after his preferred candidate lost.
The minister was also not present during the APC mega rally in Osun on Tuesday, which was attended by Tinubu, the party’s presidential candidate, as well as governors and other party stakeholders. No doubt, this factor played a role in the defeat of Oyetola.
With the Osun election, there is no better way to demonstrate that power truly belongs to the people and the ruling APC must learn from this.
If the party must win come 2023, it must reconcile all aggrieved members and change the nonchalant attitude of the federal government led by President Muhammadu Buhari to the sufferings and plight of Nigerians
