The Nigeria National Coalition Group (NNCG), an association of prominent opposition figures, has formally applied to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the registration of a new political party, the All Democratic Alliance (ADA). The move is seen as a strategic step in their quest to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general elections.
The NNCG's decision to float a new party comes after weeks of intense consultations and deliberations. Prior to the latest development, there were a series of permutations on the best way to wrest power from the incumbent Tinubu. While some members of the coalition were in support of using an existing party to do the job, an overwhelming majority of them were of the opinion that a new party would serve as a breath of fresh air which could be easily used to sway Nigerians.
Notable figures behind the coalition are former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, immediate past governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, and a former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi. While it is still not clear if Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 election, would join them, there are some many undercurrents behind this audacious move.
The registration of ADA could potentially alter the dynamics of the 2027 elections, providing an alternative platform for Nigerians who are dissatisfied with the current administration. But it is not going to be a walk in the park. It is going to be an uphill task for the group to make an upset. They will need everything in their arsenal to defeat Tinubu, who is known for his deft and skillful political moves.
One potential drawback for them would be who to field as their presidential candidate and his running mate. Since the North had its turn under Muhammadu Buhari for an uninterrupted eight years, some members of the coalition are of the view that power should remain in the South in order not to alter the zoning arrangement. More so, that would be a bait for southerners to give their overwhelming support.
But it is the perceived position of the likes of Atiku that it would be easier to defeat President Tinubu with a northern candidate because of the numbers. Atiku, who himself is nursing an ambition, has been reported to have pledged to do a single term owing to his age. But how will they navigate these complexities and put aside individual political interests is the yardstick for a victorious outcome.
Another hurdle will be to convince political heavyweights like Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whose influence in the north, especially his Homestate of Kano, is cult like. It will be a great advantage if the former governor and Defence Minister join them. It will also be a big boost if Obi joins the party. The ex-Anambra State Governor garnered 6.1 million votes representing 25.4% in the 2023 presidential election. With his "Obidient Movement" still rooting for him, the soft-spoken politician may be the man to do the magic for the coalition.
The coalition also faces a significant challenge in convincing Nigerians of their sincerity and commitment to a better and more prosperous future that they profess. Most of them, if not all of them, are part of the broader problem Nigeria is currently facing. In 2015, they conspired against former President Goodluck Jonathan and removed him from office. That political conspiracy came with consequences that plunged Nigeria into a path of socio-economic perdition.
If all of these knotty issues are sorted, the coalition can spring up surprises. They will benefit greatly from the current frustration of Nigerians because of the harsh polices of the administration that have made more people poorer. The disenchantment after two years is palpable. This is enough to seek a change, especially when there seems to be no hope in sight.
Also, the current internal wrangling within the All Progressives Congress (APC), fuelled by the alleged plan to drop Vice President Ibrahim Shettima as running mate in 2027 can brighten the chances of the coalition. Loyalists of the VP may sabotage the APC from within if the plan to drop him is achieved.
Generally, the deliberate attempt by the APC to make Nigeria a one-party state may be stoutly rejected at the poll. The coalition's new baby, ADA, may be the vehicle for the rejection. It is definitely not going to be an easy ride, but on each side of the divide, the political elements know what is up. It is a fight to finish for them.
